What Does the 2018 Vote Say About 2020?

Kevin Drum was wondering what the 2018 vote totals might mean in 2020. Luckily, Nate Silver had a similar thought and created a pretty cool map of the 2018 Congressional Popular Vote by Party and Converted to Electoral Votes.

What caught my eye aside from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin hopefully turning back blue, was what Drum said about this whole political landscape.

This is all part and parcel of my belief that Donald Trump was something of a fluke and Republicans know perfectly well that they’re demographically doomed. It’s true that a lot of people—including me—have been saying this for a long time, and it’s continued not to come true. So why should it come true now? That’s simple: the non-white share of the population really does keep going up and Trump has now irreparably identified Republicans as the party of white racism. It’s hard for me to see him winning in 2020, and it’s hard for me to see the Republican Party winning much of anything for the decade after that. Somehow they need to reinvent themselves as a conservative party sans racism, and that’s going to take a while.

I want to believe, but I just don’t know.

December 19, 2018


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