Daily Kos examines the state of the presidential race with 30 days to go. It’s remarkably steady.

The polling won’t perfectly predict this year’s election results, but if Democratic nominee Kamala Harris were to take every state where she currently leads, she would win the election with a narrow 276-262 electoral votes.

However, swing the election 1.5 percentage points to Donald Trump, and he wins 287-251. Then again, swing things 1.5 points toward Harris, and she wins every swing state, netting 319-219 electoral votes. It’s a wild one. And as I’ve noted time and again, much will depend on turnout.

Remember, pollsters are pretty good at determining how a demographic will vote, but they can only make educated guesses at how much of those demographics will turn out. For example, I can tell you that over 90% of Black women will no doubt vote for Harris, while around 60% of white men will likely vote for Trump. (That basically mirrors 2020 exit polls.) But there’s a big difference if Black women are 8% of the electorate or 12%, and an even bigger difference if white men are 35% of the electorate or 30%.

Trump will never rise above 47%, and he’ll have to hit another inside straight to win. It could happen, but I think not.