Alex Shepherd in The New Republic:

“Liberation Day” seems to have woken a lot of Americans up to something they had inexplicably forgotten: Trump is the same profoundly incompetent and stupid person who, just a few years ago, they did not like very much. Trump may be counting on his trade war somehow working, but much would have to go right for his popularity to recover. For one, that trade war would have to deliver what Trump promises it will: mass prosperity, an end to the income tax, and the return of well-paying manufacturing jobs—which pretty much everyone, aside from Trump and a handful of slavish loyalists, agrees is impossible. He would also have to somehow turn back time and restore the pre-Covid economy that many Americans remembered so fondly when they voted for him a second time. This is also impossible. He would probably also have to end the war in Ukraine—but in a way that doesn’t give Russia everything it wants, which is Trump’s current, and truly artless, negotiating position—and somehow repair America’s absolutely destroyed global reputation. None of that is going to happen, either.

It’s more likely that everything is going to get a lot worse. Trump’s approval ratings are historically awful right now, even though he has managed to delay the worst effects of his trade war. But he is still stubbornly clinging to tariffs, which inevitably will cause product shortages and rising costs in the near future—not to mention a potential recession, the odds of which are worryingly high.

A lot of other things will likely hurt his popularity too. Trump seems to believe that ending the war in Ukraine will win him a Nobel peace prize, but while Americans may have soured on supporting that nation’s fight against Russian invaders, a deal that ends up being a gift to Putin may not go down well with independents or even Republicans (and certainly won’t with Democrats, though they basically already all despise him anyway). His authoritarian immigration crackdown is already unnerving a majority of voters, and those numbers will likely continue to slide as his administration deports law-abiding undocumented immigrants and even legal residents and citizen children. That crackdown, moreover, is rapidly heading toward a confrontation with the judiciary and the Supreme Court that seems destined to lead to a constitutional crisis.

It is a scary time with the tariffs and this fucking idiot of a president. As soon as store shelves are missing items… as soon as fresh produce is non-existent… as soon as everything becomes 150% more expensive… as soon as Christmas toys and electronics are not on shelves… maybe, just maybe things will change.

It feels like Americans are waking up to the fact that they have elected an incompetent buffoon.